Showing posts with label Free For All. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free For All. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 29, 2015

New Data Is "Rolling" In

Last summer, we presented an example of the type of data analysis that could be done using the methods outlined in our book, Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call. Since that time, coaches from all over the country have sent us requests for the tally sheets and Excel templates in our book. Some coaches have gone so far as to add me as a coach within their HUDL software in order to allow us to produce data analysis and decision tools for them. Below we present the play distribution data for 4 schools that have done just that.

We present the run play distribution data in Figure 1. The probability distribution function (PDF) for each school informs the coaches (and analysts) of the probability of gaining a specific number of yards in the offense. We should emphasize that the play distributions are derived from full seasons of data from each school, but the data is historical. That is, future results may vary from these historical performances. A quick glance at Figure 1 does not reveal big differences in the offenses between the schools, but the differences (particularly with respect to Pulaski Academy) come out as the data analysis goes forward.

Figure 1 - Run Play Probability Distribution Functions
Figure 2 shows the play distribution data from the 4 high schools from passing plays. Again, a quick look does not reveal anything vastly different between the offenses.
Figure 2 - Pass Play Probability Distribution Functions


The other distribution functions (the cumulative distribution function [CDF] and the complementary cumulative distribution function [CCDF]) derived from the same data set from each school are shown in Figure 3 - Figure 6. Differences in the offensive output of the schools become more apparent in these figures.

Figure 3 - Run Play Cumulative Distribution Functions

Figure 4 - Pass Play Cumulative Distribution Functions

Figure 5 - Run Play Complementary Cumulative Distribution Functions

Figure 6 - Pass Play Complementary Cumulative Distribution Functions
The most useful data to a coach in the 4th down decision making process are the CCDFs. Essentially, the CCDF will describe the probability that a team will gain AT LEAST a given number (X) yards. We have built an Excel tool to query the CCDF to give a coach the probability of gaining the yards needed for a 1st down with either a run or a pass play. We can make a sample of this tool available if you request it (arkansasfootballbloggers@gmail.com).

While the decision tool provided by the Excel spreadsheet does not help a coach on the sidelines on a Friday night, the data can be extracted into a useable form. The tables below show examples that would easily fit in a corner of a play sheet allowing a coach to assess the degree of "gambling" with a given play call. However, the full degree of gambling is not known unless he includes the points the other team is likely to score if a conversion fails. We discuss this analysis technique (and a couple of others) in the book.



As a note on the above tables, the conversion probability percentages for Pulaski Academy demonstrate just how potent Kevin Kelley's offense is. He knows that he can depend on ~35-40% conversion percentage on 4th down out to 10 yards to gain. This is an absolutely brutal offense to attempt to defend. To learn more about decision making tools for high school coaches, pick up an eBook copy of Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call at your favorite bookseller for just $0.99.
The paperback version is also available in these retail outlets for just $5.99:




Wednesday, August 20, 2014

2013 Harrison Data Example

In our book, Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call, we discussed processing data to help coaches make better decisions on 4th down. In writing the book, we developed a couple of templates for easy processing of the play data from a high school season. In the time since then, we have modified and expanded on the tools that were developed. This post will show you some of the results when the 2013 Harrison Goblin play data is used.

The 2013 Harrison Goblins database for plays that we used had 306 runs and 281 passes. The probability distribution functions (PDFs) for the data are found in Figure 1. The PDFs provide the probability of the yards gained for a play within the Harrison offense last season.

Figure 1. Probability Distribution Function for 2013 Harrison

There are two other distribution functions (the cumulative distribution function [CDF] and the complementary cumulative distribution function [CCDF]) derived from the same data. Those functions are found in Figure 2 and Figure 3.

Figure 2. Cumulative Distribution Function for 2013 Harrison

Figure 3. Complementary Cumulative Distribution Function for 2013 Harrison

The most useful data to a coach in the 4th down decision making process are the CCDFs. Essentially, the CCDF will describe the probability that a team will gain AT LEAST a given number (X) yards. We have built an Excel tool to query the CCDF to give a coach the probability of gaining the yards needed for a 1st down with either a run or a pass play. Figure 4 shows a screen shot of the data query sheet of the Excel tool.

Figure 4. Screen Shot from Excel Decision Tool

The tool does not provide a coach with much help on a Friday night, but a table for inclusion on a play call sheet is easily created. A sample table created using the data and tool above is found in Figure 5.

Figure 5. Sample Play Sheet Table Using 2013 Harrison Data

The table above would fit in a corner of a play sheet allowing a coach to assess the degree of "gambling" with a given play call. However, the full degree of gambling is not known unless he includes the points the other team is likely to score if a conversion fails. We discuss this analysis technique (and a couple of others) in the book.

We are looking forward to a great 2014 high school football season in the Natural State. To learn more about decision making tools for high school coaches, pick up an eBook copy of Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call at your favorite bookseller for just $0.99.
The paperback version is also available in these retail outlets:



Monday, May 26, 2014

Current Outlets for Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call

Before the summer 7-on-7 season kicks off in a couple of weeks, we thought we would highlight the retailers currently carrying Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call. The book is carried by all major (and some minor) retail outlets. As always, we recommend purchasing the book from Smashwords for a few of reasons: (1) Smashwords pays us higher royalty percentages; (2) When you purchase from Smashwords, you can switch eBook eco-systems without having to buy your books again (you own the book, but you don't have to use a Kindle, Nook, etc.); and (3) Smashwords supports independent authors in ways not found at the other big book sellers. In any case, we are happy with any purchases. Here are the links for the eBook pages for these retailers:
Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call is also available through these "Netflix for eBooks" type apps:
If you prefer the paperback version, here are the links to find it at the best prices:
We have enrolled the book in the "Kindle Matchbook" program with Amazon. If you buy the print edition through Amazon, then you can buy the Kindle edition of the book FREE. If you choose to buy from another retailer, then let us know. We will send a gift copy of  Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call from Smashwords.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

2014 Kickoffs and Updates

Saturday Morning Wake-up Call

We have decided to permanently lower the price of Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call to just $0.99 while we move on to our next project - a "Quads" playbook.

The price change has taken place at Smashwords (our eBook distributor). However, the change often takes a few days to a week or more to ripple through to the other retailers. As a side note, we get a higher royalty percentage for Smashwords sales, AND you get the book in any format you want (.mobi, .pdf, .ePub, .lrf, and .pdb as well as the ability to read online). This means that you don't have to be locked into an eBook eco-system by purchasing our book. Finally, if you think you would like to copy of the book and will agree to review the book, we will send you a coupon to download a free copy at Smashwords. Simply email us at arkansasfootballbloggers@gmail.com with the subject "Book review" and we will send you that free copy.

Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call is available at these retailers:
We are still deciding how to handle Amazon distribution because they have dragged their feet with respect to bulk distribution from eBook distributors such as Smashwords.

Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call is also available through these "Netflix for eBooks" type apps:

Quads Playbook (We are still working on the final title)

We have the essential outline of a quads playbook that will illustrate successful plays out of the 4 x 1 formation against multiple coverages and defensive schemes. The book will include QB read progressions as well as receiver responsibilities for each of the plays in the book. We are still working on drawing the plays in the proper format for eBook distribution as well as deciding on the final price point. Our plan is still be finished by the time coaches and teams gear up for 7-on-7 tournaments in late Spring 2014, but our progress has been slow thus far.

Arkansas 7-on-7 Football Site Updates

Over the next few weeks, we will be completing the 2013 Arkansas High School Football Scoreboard page while taking down the 2013 schedule page. We will be contacting high school coaches in the state to find out tournament and team camp dates. We will also ask for their input so that we can construct the 2014 Arkansas High School Football Schedule page. In addition, we will make our annual request to the college football coaches and sports information directors in the state to get their schedules for the summer. So, please visit us often to get the most complete information on summer football activities in Arkansas and some of the surrounding states.

Monday, June 10, 2013

Where Can I Get "Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call"

We are happy to announce that our book "Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call" is now available from many eBook retailers including Smashwords, Barnes & Noble, iTunes, and Sony. Here are the links to the book pages at the various retailers:
The retail price of the book is $2.99. However, we are running a long term discount on the book at Smashwords to encourage others to discover books there.
  • $0.99 for Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call
    • Use Coupon Code "XK88N"
Please "Like" our Facebook book page:
https://www.facebook.com/SaturdayMorningWakeUpCall


*** ~~~ ***

We have also become a part of Operation eBook Drop. The indie authors in this program give away their eBooks to active duty service members. If you are in the service and would like a copy of our book, please send us an email at arkansasfootballbloggers@gmail.com. You can also sign up at the Operation eBook Drop Facebook page to receive free books from almost 1500 indie authors. Finally, if you have a friend or family member that is serving, let them know about this program (and our book). We will be sure to send them a free copy.

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Week 3 NFL Fantasy Football Power Moves


This week we are introducing a new feature: an NFL Fantasy Football preview.  We will have a couple of posts over the course of the NFL season by our football friend - Chad Michaels of NFL Betting Lines.  So, without further ado...

*** ~ ***

We're heading into week 3 of the NFL season and things are starting to get interesting. Starting players are questionable or out and new stars are on the rise. If you want to keep your fantasy team at the forefront then you should be paying close attention to who you can pick up each week. Here are five players to watch for going into week 3.
  1. Dennis Pitta - The tight end on the Baltimore Ravens has emerged at Joe Flacco's main target. When he gets in trouble he dumps the ball off to him all the time. He had 8 receptions for 65 yards against the Eagles on Sunday but look for those numbers to keep going up.
  2. Brandon Lafell - The 2nd wide receiver for the Panthers is emerging as a nice WR 3 in 12 team leagues and getting serious looks from Cam Newton.
  3. Jaquizz Rodgers - With Michael Turner getting a DUI after Monday night's game (full story here) rookie Jaquizz Rodgers may be getting a lot more touches.
  4. Martellus Bennett - The Giants tight end is looking sharp. With 10 targets last week, a touchdown and a second end zone target that should of yielded him a second TD Martellus had a great game. If Eli continues to look for him in red zone situations than he's worth making a play for.
  5. Mikel Leshoure - Coming off a two game suspension, Lions running back Mikel Leshoure looks to be in the mix for the starting position. Now could be a great time to come in and scoop him up for cheap.
What players are you targeting to pick up for your roster? Any big surprises so far this season? What match-ups are you looking forward to this week?

- Chad Michaels is ecstatic that football season has returned. When he's not glued to fantasy updates you can find him writing at his NFL Lines site.

Monday, August 27, 2012

Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call Available

Finally, we have finished the book that we have been working on for about 8 months now, Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call - just in time for football season. The book is available for $3.99 from Smashwords.com (and we anticipate it will soon be available at other eBook retailers). We have coupons for a free copy for the first five Arkansas 7-on-7 Football readers to send an email to arkansasfootballbloggers@gmail.com requesting a copy. All other Arkansas 7-on-7 Football readers can use this coupon code (CK94N) for $3 off the list price until September 27, 2012.

Here is the "Extended Description" of the book:
"The conclusions drawn by analyzing statistics from college and professional football often do not translate to the high school game because the games are so different. This book puts those powerful statistical techniques for maximizing a team's chance of winning into the hands of high school coaches and fans. These techniques are illustrated using the Pulaski Academy Bruins as a case study.

Techniques such as Expected Point Value and Points Per Possession analysis are demonstrated with examples. The authors explore the utility of onside kicks, 4th down decision making, and two point conversion attempts. In addition, the book touches on the aspects of game theory as it relates to the opponents psychological state.
"

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Arkansas 7-on-7 Football's 2011 Mid-Season Top 10

ArkansasVarsity has produced their mid-season Top 20. We decided to give you our Top 10 along with our rational for placing the teams where we did. You can visit Luke over at ArkansasVarsity.com to compare.


1. Pulaski Academy
  • PA finished 10-0 at the Shootout of the South, disposing of Allen, TX and Belton, TX (twice) as well as top Arkansas teams Fayetteville, Rogers Heritage, El Dorado and Nashville. They also defeated Greenbrier and Lake Hamilton (twice) at the Sonic Air Raid and defeated Bryant at the ASPC Summer Showdown. Bryant is their lone loss from pool play at the Summer Showdown.

2. Fayetteville
  • Austin Allen showed why there is hype around his big right arm at the Shootout of the South. He led the Bulldogs to victories over top teams Greenbrier, El Dorado, CAC, and Rogers Heritage.

3. Lake Hamilton
  • Lake Hamilton's defeats this year have come to Greenbrier in their first game at the Air Raid, who they would later beat in the tournament, Pulaski Academy (twice) at the Air Raid, and Allen, Texas, who beat them on a 20-yard touchdown pass as time expired. They won the OBU 7-on-7 tournament and have defeated Greenbrier, Conway, Warren, CAC, and Heritage Hall out of Oklahoma City.

4. Central Arkansas Christian
  • Probably the biggest pleasant surprise as they went 10-1 and won the Auburn Passing tournament. They continued to impress at the Shootout with victories over Bryant, Nashville, and twice over Watson Chapel. Their only losses were a last minute 2-point loss to Allen, a 1-point loss to Fayetteville, and an elimination loss to Lake Hamilton.

5. Rogers Heritage
  • A new offensive coordinator does not seem like it will slow down the War Eagles passing game. Their well-designed offense behind their sophomore QB Josh Qualls was a tough out at the Shootout. They defeated Russellville, Belton, TX, and Bryant, while their losses were to Pulaski Academy, Lake Hamilton, and Fayetteville.

6. Bryant
  • Although they were a bit of a disappointment at the Shootout, much of that could be attributed to the injury to playmaker Dillon Winfrey, their go to receiver and starting cornerback. Without him they struggled to find a rhythm on offense. However, Bryant is the only team to take down Pulaski Academy this summer as they scored on almost every possession in 6 games at the Summer Showdown.

7. Greenbrier
  • Greenbrier has taken down some good teams this year as they defeated Lake Hamilton at the Air Raid, and beat El Dorado and Bryant and demolished Conway, 53-28, at the Shootout. Their losses have come at the hands of Pulaski Academy, Lake Hamilton, Fayetteville, Belton, TX, and Heritage Hall (OK City).

8. El Dorado
  • We predict El Dorado will be much better at the Southwest Elite 7-on-7 at Shiloh in July. Their young quarterback and receivers never quite hit their stride at their Shootout, but their defense was able to make up with their closing speed on balls put up in the air. They were as impressive as any defense we've seen this summer.

9. Warren
  • The youth of this team has to have Coach Hembree excited about the next three years. Wide receiver Jalen Cobb is a great target to build an offense around, and they will likely improve exponentially each time they play.

10. Conway
  • There are too many playmakers for this team not to be dangerous. They had some disappointing losses at the Shootout, but Coach Ashcraft and staff will fix the problems and they will not be easy to beat by mid July.
There you have our rankings.  Let us know what you think.


NOTE:  One team intentionally left off is Springdale Har-Ber.  However, we are unsure of any 7-on-7 competitions that they have competed in this summer. There is no doubt they belong here, but we're not sure where they fit in, They will make their first mark at the Southwest Elite on July 8-9. We're sure they will be one of the top 5 teams in that 24 team field, but that is pure speculation on our part.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

2011 AAA Dead Period -- Misunderstanding of Southern 7-on-7 Football

Well, we have reached the Arkansas Activities Association Dead Period for 2011.  Of course, that doesn't mean that the AAA has suspended its activities.  They will be hosting All-Star games while the teams are on "vacation."  So much for a needed rest for the coaches in the state.  In any case, we didn't want to abruptly go away for 2 weeks. We found a couple of articles from Michigan that claim that Armageddon is coming there because 7-on-7 football is becoming popular in that state.

Links 

The writers of these articles don't understand 7-on-7 in the South in general and Arkansas in particular. The worry is that we will have AAU style football with agents, shady characters, and all the rest once these events get out of control. However, in Arkansas, the high school teams field 7-on-7 squads, and in general, coaches run the 7-on-7 events in the state.  We haven't seen AAU style teams being assembled simply because the coaches in the state are using these events to improve their team for the next season. In addition, the coaches running the events could simply refuse entry to their events for "all-star" teams. 

It seems to us that the problem with the 7-on-7 described in the northern/mid-west states is that the high school coaches are giving the opening to the shady characters.  Let us know if you think that this issue is being overblown in Michigan.  Also, do you see this as a problem in Arkansas?

Monday, May 30, 2011

Arkansas Varsity Releases First Ever 7-on-7 Rankings

Luke Matheson of Arkansas Varsity (Arkansas' rivals.com site for prep sports) has released his rankings for this year's 7-on-7 season. This is the first rankings that we know that has ever been released. You can see those rankings by clicking here.

We feel like this is a solid list and a great idea. I think everyone agrees that being better than a team in 7-on-7 doesn't make you better in real football. However, note the success of these teams in real football:
  • 18 Playoff Teams
  • 14 Quarter-finalists
  • 9 Semi-finalists
  • 5 Finalists
  • 3 State Champions
  • Central Arkansas Christian and Russellville were the only two that did not qualify for the playoffs
I think it's also worth noting some teams not on this list that are successful, but do not play in many or any 7-on-7 tournaments during the summer. Most notably is Greenwood, who has competed in only one tournament in the past 7 years that we can remember. However, they have won 4 state championships during that time. Fort Smith Southside, Cabot, Texarkana, Camden Fairview, and Junction City are perennial powers whose names are rarely if ever seen on the 7-on-7 circuit.
Here are some of our thoughts about these rankings.
  1. We are excited that Matheson has taken the time to research and come up with this poll. We believe that anything that promotes high school athletes in a positive manner is a good thing.
  2. Although no one would argue that Bentonville is not a top program (if not the top program), we do not feel that they are generally successful in 7-on-7. We think a top 3, or even a top 10 7-on-7 ranking is a bit high. Regardless, Bentonville will likely be a favorite to win the 7A title again this year.
  3. Lake Hamilton was ranked out of the top 10 in the first ranking, but Matheson has revised them to #7. We feel that the Wolves are likely a top 5 7-on-7 team every year regardless of personnel. This year, with most of their team returning, we would rank them at #2 behind Pulaski Academy...another team that seems to be very good in 7-on-7 regardless of personnel.
  4. Greenbrier has one of the state's top QB's in Neal Burcham. He is being recruited by several top colleges in the south including Alabama. In 7-on-7, a top QB makes up for other deficiencies as they continue to put pressure other teams to score. We would rank Greenbrier in our top 5 this year as well.
  5. West Memphis runs the ball 95% of the time, but Matheson ranks them #5. We say "Bravo!" West Memphis runs a league in East Arkansas as well as a tournament this first week. Although their play action pass may be a little unorthodox for 7-on-7, they stick to running their offense and are simply trying to get better in their passing game, but more importantly, in their pass defense. We would probably rank them a little lower, but still in the top 10.
  6. There are some other teams that we would rank a bit differently, but for the most part, this is a very solid list. Obviously, there will be some changes throughout the summer, but it is interesting and gives football pundits and non-pundits alike another bit of discussion before real football begins in August.
Please feel free to comment below about this post or about Arkansas Varsity's rankings. We love to hear from you.

Saturday, May 28, 2011

Now is a great time to subscribe ...

... to Arkansas 7-on-7 Football. We are not asking you to buy anything. We would simply like you to subscribe to our RSS (Really Simple Syndication or Rich Site Summary) feed. For those unfamiliar with RSS, sites that update their content frequently use RSS to syndicate (or publicize) when their content has changed. The feed is published in a standard format (for you web geeks, XML) so that the subscriber can pick his/her favorite feed gatherer. You have likely seen a button like this on our (or another) website:


The summer season in Arkansas is just about to kickoff with the Sonic Air Raid and the Fenter Physical Therapy Air Devil 7-on-7 Tournament next Saturday, June 4. We intend to give our readers as much coverage as possible. You can be instantly updated when we have new results, awards, and pictures by signing up for our feed. By subscribing, you let us know how many of you are following us on a regular basis.

If you would like more information or help getting started with an RSS feed reader, don't hesitate to contact us at arkansasfootballbloggers@gmail.com. Thanks and have a great Memorial Day Weekend! Don't forget to take time to remember our fallen American heroes.

Thursday, May 12, 2011

*Helmet Stickers - Distant Replay

Photo by Jonathan Gibson
Over the last 4 years, we have been discussing the concept that 7-on-7 competitions emphasize the importance of skill position players. They also allow the skill players to develop that all-important concept of timing between quarterback, running backs, and receivers. However, what usually comes up in the discussions is what should linemen (both offensive and defensive) be doing during the summer while the guys with the eligible numbers are "playing catch?"

We came up with very few ideas other than conditioning and weight training. So, we are looking to you guys out there for some fun ways of making sure that these big guys are involved. We are interested in how coaches make these guys understand their importance to the success of the team. Along those same lines, how do you reward OL/DL during the regular season because the media tends to concentrate on the stats of the QBs/WRs/RBs?

For example, do you make the internal team recognition (e.g., helmet stickers) more obtainable for the linemen?

Please submit your thoughts and ideas for discussion fodder.

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*This is basically a re-post (with small changes) of an early article.  This makes it easier to find and, we hope, fodder for discussion.

Tuesday, May 3, 2011

*Belief

The spread passing game has proliferated around the state of Arkansas. Its popularity and high profile successes (most notably, the nation profile of Shiloh Christian) has made some coaches feel pressure to "modernize" their game and chuck the ball around the yard. We think that we can make the case that this is a bad idea if this philosophy doesn't suit the entire coaching staff and the players that a school has historically produced. We feel that if a coaching staff will choose a philosophy (a grind it out power, a finesse type of speed option, or a no holds barred spread passing attack) and demonstrate to the players that they believe in it, then the team will be successful because of the consistent training in the system throughout the program.

First, the implementation of a spread passing offensive philosophy must get the buy-in of the ENTIRE coaching staff. By its very nature, the spread passing attack is very aggressive and takes chances that a traditional offense wouldn't dream about. For instance, these offenses are much more likely to go for it on 4th down on their side of the 50-yard line. These decisions place more pressure on the defense and its coordinator. The risks taken can lead to big rewards, but it can also mean that the Saturday morning paper reports on some lopsided defeats if the offense has a bad night.

Most assistant coaches are early in their careers as coaches and many have aspirations of becoming a head coach at some time in the future. Thus, a defensive coordinator may not fully commit to an offensive system that places "his" defense in positions to give up lots of points. It may be difficult to convince a young coach with head coaching aspirations that he should sacrifice that career goal for the team. This means that a coaching staff implementing a new spread offense attack must be ready to address some of the possible inter-staff conflicts.

Second, a coaching staff that does not have experience with a sophisticated passing attack may find it difficult to find and develop quarterbacks that can perform with some efficiency in the system. This is another aspect of believing in your system leading to success. If a head coach (and his staff) has cut his teeth on power football or the option attack, then it is likely that he understands the fundamentals of developing QBs, RBs, and OLs for those systems. It is also just as likely that he has only a superficial understanding of what it takes to develop QBs, WRs, and OLs in a passing system.

Next, the kids in a football program know whether or not a coaching staff believes in an offensive philosophy. How? Well, for one thing, they know if the playbook and offensive formation changes from year to year. If a team runs the wishbone one year and a slot-I formation the next with no real explanation of the changes, the kids begin to understand that the coaching staff isn't sure how to best move the ball down the field and give the team the best chance of success. However, if a kid starts running the wing-T in the first practice of 7th grade and continues to run it every day until he plays his final game six years later, then he knows that his coaches believe that offensive philosophy is the best for the team. So, if the spread passing game is just another offense that the coaching staff is taking for a whirl, then it is likely to meet with little success because of the limited experience that both the coaches and players have with it.

Finally, we want to make it clear that we understand that football is still football whatever the offense that you choose to run. A well executed running attack that dominates the time of possession and puts points on the board can frustrate the wide open attacks and prevent them from getting into the rhythm need to perform at a high level. What we are essentially saying to coaches is "Know yourself and your team." This is the surest formula for a successful season.

Some of you may be wondering why we are taking the time to argue for coaches to stick with types of offenses that do not lend themselves to 7-on-7 competitions. We feel that all teams could benefit from participation in these competitions for the following reasons:
  • No matter what a team's offensive philosophy, it is almost a certainty that its defense will face a hurry-up, no-huddle spread passing offense at some point (maybe several times) during a given season. So, 7-on-7 competitions provide excellent full speed opportunities for defensive backs and linebackers to work on pass coverage skills.
  • The 7-on-7 competitions provide the ability for coaches and skill players to work on techniques and plays that may be needed in come from behind situations. We feel that it is better for QBs and receivers to have at least seen the ball in the air before trying to use passing plays in game situations.
  • These competitions provide the conditioning opportunities for the players. With regular workouts outdoors in the heat, it is less likely that players will suffer from the heat and humidity at the start of the fall campaign. Since the players will be acclimated to the heat, it will be safer for them during the extreme heat of August.
  • Finally, the coaches get a chance to stay in contact with players. While this may not seem significant for some, it is well known that participation in athletics (or other extracurricular activities) decreases the probability of mischievous activities. This contact between the coaches and players at a time of the year when the athletes have lots of free time may keep some of the kids out of trouble.
While we may not convince you that a spread passing attack is the best offense for your team (and we are pretty sure we don't want to do that), we hope that you will consider some of the possible advantages in becoming involved with this fast growing derivative of that offensive philosophy.

--

*This is a re-post of an early article.

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

"Head Games: Football's Concussion Crisis" Book Review*

Since we are an "All Things Football Related" type of blog, we felt that a book review dealing with a hot topic in high school, college, and pro football might be a good idea. I finished this book a little over a year and a half ago. The conclusions and story stay with me to this day.

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  • Title:  "Head Games: Football's Concussion Crisis"
  • Author:  Christopher Nowinski
  • Synopsis:  This book is a mixture of many things: autobiography, lessons learned, advocacy, etc.  Nowinski tells the story of his battle with multiple concussions and warns football players, families, and coaches of the danger of not taking concussions seriously.
  • Impression of the book: I was impressed with Nowinski (Harvard football player turned professional wrestler) and his ability to tell a really sad story that continues to wreak havoc in his life.  I closed the book feeling both sad for him and fortunate that  I walked away from football mostly unscathed.
Nowinski tells a story that is perhaps familiar to many that have played high school and/or college football. He has multiple instances of getting dinged, having his bell rung, etc.  What football players, coaches, and professional wrestlers don't realize is that each of those cultural phases for going loopy after hit are basically the recognition of the symptoms of a concussion (without actually saying concussion).  I had ONE pretty serious concussion as a high football player, but thinking back on my career, it is likely that I had multiple "minor" concussions that never took me out of the action.

Head Games: Football's Concussion Crisis from the NFL to Youth Leagues
This book caused me a lot of consternation, but it also confirmed a lot of my beliefs about youth football. I am one that believes that tackle football at ages less than middle school/junior high is counterproductive.  First, there is such a great disparity in body size at young ages that there is an inherent problem of the smaller players quitting (or never starting) because of the size mismatch with larger kids.  Second, there is nothing that is taught or learned at those young ages that is neglected in higher levels of football.  Finally and probably most importantly, the coaches of these Pop Warner or Pee Wee leagues don't have the training to recognize the signs of head injury.  For that matter, neither do some high school or college coaches if we are to believer the reports from Texas Tech last season.

I think that every youth, junior high, and high school football coach should read this book.  I think that coaches care about their players. Living with the fact that they could have prevented an injury (or death) of a player would be extremely difficult.  I also recommend this book to anyone involved with high school athletics.  Finally, I would recommend that high school coaches associations around the country bring in neurologists or other doctors to train/inform coaches on the dangers of head injuries for adolescents.  Emphasizing the dangers might reign back some of the cavalier attitude toward head injuries that can be seen on almost any Friday night during football season.

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*This review was originally posted on my "general" blog:  The Minimum Publishable Unit (MPU).

Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Bill Belichick vs. 31 Other Coaches*

It's certain that you have seen by now the Bill Belichick decision to go for it on 4th down last Sunday. It's almost a given that you have heard how terrible, foolish, etc. it was for him to not trust his defense. The real question for me, "Is did Belichick improve his chance of winning the game?" I know this will be hard for many of you to believe, but the answer is YES! By going for it in that situation, Belichick increased his chance of winning from 70% to 79%.

HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT!!!

Well, it's not me, but statistics from hundreds of NFL games using expected outcomes of any given situation. If you haven't seen the website that analyzes this type of situation for many games, it is called Advanced NFL Stats. Here is the link to the analysis that shows Belichick was right. AND, there was fallout from the initial analysis claiming that it was faulty, so here is the link to the rebuttal column that was posted later.

So, why the dustup for Belichick over this? That is pretty simple. It just proves that the majority of coaches (31 out of 32) in the NFL are optimizing a different variable than chance of winning. It is my opinion that coaches are minimizing the "media exposure/fan outcry" variable rather maximizing the chance at winning. Belichick may not have known the exact numbers produced by the Advanced NFL Stats, but he knew for certain that making the 1st down seals the game.

The real question is how do fans allow themselves to fall victim to supporting strategies that work against the team's chance of success? For one, the coaches have put up a smoke screen that allows them to shift the blame/risk from himself to the players/defense. Really, I think it is simply that the coaches (and fans) don't know the optimum strategies, or the coaches refuse to take the heat for a winning strategy (by statistical analysis) that fails in a given instance. You will find VERY similar arguments in baseball when discussing the "manufacture" of runs. In that case, bunting, stealing bases, and other small ball, work against the team that implements those strategies. However, that idea is accepted as sound strategy by almost everyone in the game.

So, here's to Belichick. It takes guts to make the right decision, and he continues to lead in that category. One other thing, what do you think the media would have said in these two situations?
  1. Pats make the 1st down and win the game against the Colts.
  2. Pats punt and Manning drives the Colts 65 yards for the win.
Let us know what you think the buzz would have been with those outcomes.

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*This article is cross-posted at 4th and 10.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Following College Football

We know that you are here because you like football whether it's high school or summer 7-on-7 (and probably college and pro). One of our buddies has started a blog that discusses college football rankings and highlights weekly matchups. He also complains about a lot of things that college fans despise about the current bowl system and the biases of the media/polls. Please stop by and let him know what you think:

4th and 10 Blog

We think he can take it, but we want you to find out for us.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Public Versus Private Schools in Arkansas*

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*Wally, you probably need to read this.

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On Thursday, May 7, 2009, Wally Hall published a wildly inaccurate and silly "Like It Is" about private schools and financial aid to student-athletes. We will dissect many sentences and paragraphs in that article. Please follow this link and read column yourself to make sure we are not taking the cranky old columnist out of context.

Wally wants to make this an issue of sportsmanship, which it may very well be. He probably could have used lots of examples of good sportsmanship. However, he chose to use the example of a 1974 game in which Elkins beat Winslow 48-0 but held down the score by punting the ball through the endzone when they got to the one yard line. John Bunch broke a national record in that game by rushing for 608 yards. He ran the ball 38 times. If Elkins was showing such great sportsmanship that game, then why in the world did their starting running back play the entire game and carry the ball 38 times?

Let's imagine for a second that Shiloh decided they no longer wanted to score once the game got out of hand, but instead wanted to use the Super Sportsmanlike 1974 Elkins Elks way of keeping the score down. Instead of bringing in their 4th string QB, they leave their entire first string guys in but are punting the ball through the endzone every time they get close. Is Wally going to write about how "sportsmanlike" they are because they only won 35-0 in racking up 800 yards of offense?

Our next beef is that Wally accuses Pulaski Academy (PA) of running up the score by going for it on 4th and 15 on their own 10. We have many things to say about this:
  • Most coaches do not agree with Coach Kevin Kelley when it comes to punting. They have called him a "riverboat gambler" or "crazy," AND they think that the strategy will come back to haunt him someday.

  • Coach Kelley is convinced that punting in almost any situation works AGAINST his team's chances of winning, and he has statistics to back that up.

  • It is either one or the other, but it can't be both.
Most casual observers would look at the situation and think that Coach Kelley is giving the opponents the opportunity to have the ball at the 10 yard line (going in). However, Wally views this as running up the score. What kind of screwed up logic is that?

Next, Wally accuses both Shiloh Christian (SC) and PA of running up the score. PA finished the season 13-1 and the average game was 50-26 while SC finished 13-1 and the average game was 47-14. You will see similar numbers for Junction City (a public school) or Fountain Lake (a public school). As a matter of fact, Fountain Lake won their semi-final game 70-0 over the Lavaca and Junction City beat Norphlet by that same 70-0 score. Where is the call for either of these teams to be bumped one classification OR have them play in their own playoff.

Near the end of the column Wally writes, "There is no such thing as a scholarship at a public school." Unless I am mistaken, EVERY student at the government funded schools in Arkansas attends without paying tuition. They are each provided with a "scholarship" by the same taxpayers that are sometimes paying someone else (i.e., private schools) to educate their children. By the way, the students that go to private schools don't get the benefit of that tax money. It is simply gone.

Obviously, you can see where we stand on this issue. We think that private schools should be allowed to play public schools for championships. However, we also believe that if a school, private or public, is doing anything illegal such as recruiting, then they should be harshly punished and should be banned from postseason play in all sports.

It should also be noted that if this is really an issue of "running up the score," then this should be punished across the board for anyone who is guilty. Connecticut has a rule that if a team wins by 50 or more points, then their coach is suspended the following week. We wouldn't mind seeing that rule, but we would add to it that if it happens twice, the coach be suspended for the remainder of the season. We're pretty sure the Junction Cities, Shilohs, and Fountain Lakes would be able to find a way to keep the scoreboard down if that were the case.

Lastly, we will admit that there is an issue that needs to be resolved. The answer may be to move up Shiloh and PA a class or two or all the way up to 7A. We don't have the answers, but we think it would be a black eye for Arkansas high school athletics not to include some of these very good teams in their championships among all the schools.

We would love to hear your thoughts. Have a good weekend!

Friday, April 10, 2009

Revolution Revisited*

*This is a reprint of the 1st article every posted on Arkansas 7-on-7 Football. We bring it back now as we are preparing to start a new season. Based on our site statistics, it is unlikely that most of our visitors today read that inaugural post.

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The editors of this blog have been watching Arkansas High School Football since the late 1980's. When our observations started, the passing game was a necessary evil to most football teams. The key to winning games early in this time frame (1987-1997) was to run the ball effectively and win the time of possession battle. The most successful teams fell into two broad categories: (1) power or (2) speed. Both categories were just distinctions between the type of running plays that the coach liked to call. Most coaches believed the adage, "Only three can happen when you pass the ball, and two of them are bad."

The power teams typically used the I-formation of various flavors and ran right at the defense with big tailbacks and basically offensive guards playing fullback. The Cabot Panthers are an example of a team that came right at you with a Power I. They simply wanted 3.5 yards on every play. Opponents of the good teams in this category would find themselves physically dominated and battered by the 4th quarter.

The speed teams usually ran some type of option game at you and tried to isolate the corner. The option came in all kinds of flavors: wishbone, wing-T, and slot I to name a few. The Fordyce Redbugs and Pine Bluff Zebras are examples of teams that would rather run around you than through you. The goods teams in this category made opponents feel like they were at a track meet with inferior athletes and the speed could dominate you psychologically.

In the mid 1990's, a quiet change occurred around the high schools of Arkansas. Suddenly, a new offensive philosophy that didn't care about that two of the things that could happen when you throw the ball are "bad." The spread passing game appeared with great success brought in most notably by Ronnie Peacock's Greenwood Bulldogs, Barry Lunney's Southside Rebels, and Gus Malzahn's Shiloh Christian Saints. Each of these coaches brought state titles to their schools and each have moved on to other opportunities. However, their imprint on Arkansas high school football can be seen at schools all over the state with varying degrees of success from three-peat state champions (Greenwood and Nashville) to teams struggling to win more than a couple of games (Parkview and Alma for example).

What began as a "gimmick" offense to many around Arkansas high school football circles has been a revolutionary way of playing football at this level. When implemented correctly, it is a fun atmosphere for the players and fans running the system and a nightmare for opposing coaches trying to prepare for it.

One side effect of the explosion of the spread passing game is the appearance of 7-on-7 football games, leagues, and tournaments. These teams spend much of the summer perfecting timing, learning plays, and conditioning in a way that the running teams of old didn't imagine. This blog will be dedicated to keeping the 7-on-7 players, coaches, and fans up-to-date on the happenings in the world of 7-on-7 football in Arkansas.

So, thanks for stopping by to see what these high powered offensive showcases are doing. We hope that you will return again and again. If you have updates on 7-on-7 tournaments and leagues that you don't see here, please email them to us at arkansasfootballbloggers@gmail.com

Ground rules for comments:
  • Please do not try to use this blog to disparage players or coaches. We are supportive of the effort that these people put forward to play, officiate, and coach in these 7-on-7 competitions.
  • If you have a different view, we would love to hear it, but please be respectful. We would be willing to publish alternative views of the 7-on-7 phenomenon as long as you can make a logical case.
  • Let us know how we can make this blog better.

*Originally posted May 3, 2008.

Thursday, March 19, 2009

Western Arkansas/Eastern Oklahoma League Idea

Over the last few years, we have heard grumblings that "isolated" schools can't catch up with the schools that live in metro areas or areas like NW Arkansas. The claims are that the areas of the state with clusters of same size schools use the summer 7-on-7 season to fine tune offenses and work on defenses against spread defenses while the isolated schools are stuck with weight training and conditioning. We recently discussed what we would do as coaches in these areas.

To make it a concrete example of our options, we had a brainstorming session a few weeks back over how teams might create 7-on-7 leagues in the area around Booneville, Waldron, Mena, and Mt. Ida. To start, we listed the schools that we know play football in the area. Here was the list:
  • Waldron
  • Mansfield
  • Booneville
  • Hartford
  • Magazine
  • Greenwood
  • Heavener (OK)
  • Mena
  • Mt. Ida
  • Poteau (OK)
  • Paris
  • Charleston
  • Ozark
Next, we put together a mileage table (below) between the towns. Using the mileage table, we looked at the average distance (and standard deviation), median distance, and the maximum distance for each town (possible host). Finally, we looked at the results to choose a town as the host school that would minimize travel time for the entire "league" that we were creating in this thought experiment.



Here is what we found. Waldron is ideally situated to minimize travel time for a 14 team league (Waldron + the 13 others). Here are the distances:
  • Average Distance: 37.9 miles (+/- 11.0 miles)
  • Median Distance: 35 miles
  • Maximum Distance: 60 miles
One interesting thing that falls out of the table above is a natural time scheduling for divisions within the league. Division 1 would be Waldron plus the 3 schools with travel distances less than 30 miles. Division 2 would have the 5 schools with travel distances to Waldron between 30 and 40 miles. Finally, Division 3 would have the 5 schools with travel distances greater than 40 miles. By making these divisions, you could schedule an early game between the Division 1 teams to allow the Division 2 and 3 teams extra travel time before their games. Inter-division games would be done in middle part of the evening schedule, and you would finish the night with the remaining games between Division 1 teams.

While we have not floated this idea to the coaches in the area, we think that putting this straw man out there at this time is a good idea. There are relatively new coaches at some of the schools (and there may be other schools not listed) that would want to get a jump on the offensive practice that 7-on-7 leagues allow.

Let us know what you think. What are the strengths and weaknesses? How could this idea be improved?

Saturday, February 7, 2009

2008 State Champion Roll Call

We turned our thoughts away from Arkansas high school football for a while as the 2008 season has been put in the books. Now that we have past Groundhog Day, we want to recognize the 2008 Arkansas State Football champions:

7A -- Bentonville Tigers


6A -- Lake Hamilton Wolves




5A -- Pulaski Academy Bruins



4A -- Shiloh Christian Saints





3A -- Charleston Tigers




2A -- Junction City Dragons




If you are a fan, player, or alum of these schools, leave us a comment to act as a "roll call" for these champions. We know that you are proud of them, so let us hear about it.

We will start posting 7-on-7 schedules as soon as they start to come in to us. If you have one of these schedules, please send it to us at arkansasfootballbloggers@gmail.com. Thanks and we hope to hear from you soon.