2009 - Final Football Week

We were 4 for 4 in picking playoff winners last week. Congratulations on championships to Shiloh Christian (4A) and Junction City (2A). Both will begin 2010 as 2-time defending state champions looking to 3-peat. Fountain Lake prevailed over Harding Academy while Prescott took out Rivercrest.

As most of you know, the 3A state final venue shifts from War Memorial to UCA's Estes Stadium. We started the playoffs believing that Fountain Lake would be hoisting the trophy at season's end. Nothing in the extended playoffs has changed our thoughts on this. If you can make it to Conway, we think that these two teams will put on an exciting game for you with the Cobras winning a close one.

Have a great weekend! Hopefully, football will be part of it.

2009 - Playoff Week 5 Shootout Pick

We were 3 for 3 in picking winners of the state finals last week. Congratulations to Springdale Har-Ber (7A), El Dorado (6A), and Monticello (5A) on your championships. We're sure that you are happy to start the '10s with the target on your back.

When the season started, we KNEW that this week was the final weekend of high school football in Arkansas.  As the story unfolded, we get one more week (well, one more game).  The state finals this week are, of course, our picks for the games of the week.  The 4A championship features Shiloh Christian against an excellent Lonoke team.  We picked Shiloh when the playoffs were kicking off, and we look for the Saints to bring another trophy to Springdale to go with the hardware from Har-Ber.  The 2A finals feature a rematch of Bearden and Junction City.  Bearden scraped by Junction City in the regular season, but we are going with the Dragons who are trying to win back-to-back state titles.


The semifinal games in 3A should entertaining if you can't make it to War Memorial. Harding Academy will travel to Fountain Lake while Rivercrest visits Prescott. I think we will see Fountain Lake and Prescott in UCA's Estes Stadium next weekend.

Have a great weekend! Hopefully, football will be part of it.

2009 - Playoff Week 4 Shootout Pick

Our pick for the Shootout of the Week last weekend was one of the best high school football games I have witnessed since last year's 5A state championship game between Pulaski Academy and Helena-West Helena. Nashville and Shiloh Christian both had defensive touchdowns, big plays on offense, and "special" special teams. We are sure that the Scrappers are wondering how they lost that game after the way the first 18 minutes went. We are also sure that the Saints are wondering how they won the game after the first 18 minutes.

Having said all that, we don't know how we could pick games other than the state championship games as our picks for games of the week. The 7A state championship game again features two 7A West rivals (Springdale Har-Ber and Ft. Smith Southside) on Saturday afternoon. Har-Ber plays a lot more physical defense than most realize and we think that mentality will carry the Wildcats to their first state title. The 6A title game will be a battle between El Dorado and Pine Bluff. We think that El Dorado has consistently been the best team in this class all year and feel that they will hoist the trophy in War Memorial. Finally, in the 5A championship, Monticello takes on Camden Fairview Friday night. We believe that Monticello will finish off the perfect 14-0 season in a close one over the Cards.

If you decide that you just can't make it to Little Rock, there will be another great matchup in Springdale weekend as Bald Knob looks to extend their dream season for one more week. They face a tough opponent (Shiloh Christian) in order to keep those perfect season hopes alive. Does Shiloh have anything left in the tank after that battle with Nashville? Have a great weekend! Hopefully, football will be part of it.

2009 - Playoff Week 3 Shootout Pick

Happy Thanksgiving!  Some schools around the state of Arkansas have made it a yearly tradition of practicing on this day.  Our pick for Week 3 of the 2009 playoffs is a matchup of two teams that have done that.  This week we are selecting the Shiloh Christian - Nashville matchup in Springdale as our shootout.

This game has been anticipated since the playoff brackets were revealed last spring.  We think that SC will be tested for the first time since early in the season.  Nashville is a tough team that knows this deep playoff territory very well.  If you get the chance to see it, we think the action in Champion's Stadium will be very intense.  We think that Shiloh will prevail over the Scrappers, but we would not be surprised if Nashville wins one as a going away present for Coach Dawson.

Have a great Thanksgiving!

2009 - Playoff Week 2 Shootout Pick

First, a little bit of history:

• 2006:  Greenwood 56, Pulaski Academy 55 (5A State Championship Game)
• 2007:  Greenwood 57, Pulaski Academy 50 (5A Quarterfinals)
• 2008:  Pulaski Academy 54, Greenwood 24 (5A Semifinals)

So, our pick for the shootout this week:  Pulaski Academy @ Greenwood [Smith-Robinson Field in Greenwood - 7:30 pm].  This one should be another barn burner.  Had PA not stumbled in the mud at Little Rock Christian 2 weeks ago, this one could have been postponed until a meeting at War Memorial. The last FOUR 5A state championships are represented in this game.  Need we say anything else?  Have a great weekend! Hopefully, football will be part of it.

Bill Belichick vs. 31 Other Coaches*

It's certain that you have seen by now the Bill Belichick decision to go for it on 4th down last Sunday. It's almost a given that you have heard how terrible, foolish, etc. it was for him to not trust his defense. The real question for me, "Is did Belichick improve his chance of winning the game?" I know this will be hard for many of you to believe, but the answer is YES! By going for it in that situation, Belichick increased his chance of winning from 70% to 79%.

HOW CAN YOU SAY THAT!!!

Well, it's not me, but statistics from hundreds of NFL games using expected outcomes of any given situation. If you haven't seen the website that analyzes this type of situation for many games, it is called Advanced NFL Stats. Here is the link to the analysis that shows Belichick was right. AND, there was fallout from the initial analysis claiming that it was faulty, so here is the link to the rebuttal column that was posted later.

So, why the dustup for Belichick over this? That is pretty simple. It just proves that the majority of coaches (31 out of 32) in the NFL are optimizing a different variable than chance of winning. It is my opinion that coaches are minimizing the "media exposure/fan outcry" variable rather maximizing the chance at winning. Belichick may not have known the exact numbers produced by the Advanced NFL Stats, but he knew for certain that making the 1st down seals the game.

The real question is how do fans allow themselves to fall victim to supporting strategies that work against the team's chance of success? For one, the coaches have put up a smoke screen that allows them to shift the blame/risk from himself to the players/defense. Really, I think it is simply that the coaches (and fans) don't know the optimum strategies, or the coaches refuse to take the heat for a winning strategy (by statistical analysis) that fails in a given instance. You will find VERY similar arguments in baseball when discussing the "manufacture" of runs. In that case, bunting, stealing bases, and other small ball, work against the team that implements those strategies. However, that idea is accepted as sound strategy by almost everyone in the game.

So, here's to Belichick. It takes guts to make the right decision, and he continues to lead in that category. One other thing, what do you think the media would have said in these two situations?

1. Pats make the 1st down and win the game against the Colts.
2. Pats punt and Manning drives the Colts 65 yards for the win.

Let us know what you think the buzz would have been with those outcomes.

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*This article is cross-posted at 4th and 10.