National Signing Day*

If you follow college football to any real degree, you know that the culmination of a recruiting season is just around the corner.  Next week, we have "National Signing Day" when high school players from across the country make their decision on where they will play college ball.  While I did live in Texas for a while (where there are just 2 seasons - Football and Recruiting), I never did buy into the hype surrounding the recruiting rankings.  Every year, Notre Dame finishes in the Top 5-10 in recruiting (they win the National Recruiting Championship every couple of years), but somehow, those blue chippers never seem to pan out.

I have several theories on why that recruiting high school players (or drafting college ones) is such an inexact science. First, with "top level" high school players, you never really get to see them compete against guys of comparable athletic ability.  Whether it is the best RB in Nebraska or the top LB in Minnesota, the talent around them and against them makes the evaluation process difficult.  I know that many states have started "recruiting combines" to allow prospects to perform against others in standardized tests of athletic ability. These combines don't get at the true football player, though.

Second, recruiting ranking services are in the business of making money.  They don't sell as many magazines or website subscriptions if they are telling Irish fans that the recruits the coach is bringing in are not as good as the recruits TCU or Boise State has.  It has been my experience that certain schools (e.g., Florida, Texas, Alabama, USC) showing interests in a kid brings up ratings while those same schools can drop a kid's rating by dropping out of the sweepstakes for his talent. While this is anecdotal, I don't know how to measure it any other way.

Finally, I am one that believes winning feeds itself.  Bowl teams get extra practices (15 or so) to develop those "blue chippers" that non-bowl teams don't get.  These extra practices allow the players at those schools to develop on a quicker schedule.  Thus, whether or not the recruiting rankings have any merit is nullified by the extra experience the top schools get during bowl practices.

In any case, I refuse to get disappointed over the whimsical choices of 17- and 18-year old boys.  I do hope the kids are choosing schools that fit them rather than who is the coach.  As we have seen recently, even the most secure coaches (Urban Meyer) aren't guaranteed to be there for graduation.  I know, that's old fashioned, but we are talking about COLLEGE football.

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*Cross posted at 4th an 10.

2009 - Final Football Week

We were 4 for 4 in picking playoff winners last week. Congratulations on championships to Shiloh Christian (4A) and Junction City (2A). Both will begin 2010 as 2-time defending state champions looking to 3-peat. Fountain Lake prevailed over Harding Academy while Prescott took out Rivercrest.

As most of you know, the 3A state final venue shifts from War Memorial to UCA's Estes Stadium. We started the playoffs believing that Fountain Lake would be hoisting the trophy at season's end. Nothing in the extended playoffs has changed our thoughts on this. If you can make it to Conway, we think that these two teams will put on an exciting game for you with the Cobras winning a close one.

Have a great weekend! Hopefully, football will be part of it.

2009 - Playoff Week 5 Shootout Pick

We were 3 for 3 in picking winners of the state finals last week. Congratulations to Springdale Har-Ber (7A), El Dorado (6A), and Monticello (5A) on your championships. We're sure that you are happy to start the '10s with the target on your back.

When the season started, we KNEW that this week was the final weekend of high school football in Arkansas.  As the story unfolded, we get one more week (well, one more game).  The state finals this week are, of course, our picks for the games of the week.  The 4A championship features Shiloh Christian against an excellent Lonoke team.  We picked Shiloh when the playoffs were kicking off, and we look for the Saints to bring another trophy to Springdale to go with the hardware from Har-Ber.  The 2A finals feature a rematch of Bearden and Junction City.  Bearden scraped by Junction City in the regular season, but we are going with the Dragons who are trying to win back-to-back state titles.


The semifinal games in 3A should entertaining if you can't make it to War Memorial. Harding Academy will travel to Fountain Lake while Rivercrest visits Prescott. I think we will see Fountain Lake and Prescott in UCA's Estes Stadium next weekend.

Have a great weekend! Hopefully, football will be part of it.