We present the run play distribution data in Figure 1. The probability distribution function (PDF) for each school informs the coaches (and analysts) of the probability of gaining a specific number of yards in the offense. We should emphasize that the play distributions are derived from full seasons of data from each school, but the data is historical. That is, future results may vary from these historical performances. A quick glance at Figure 1 does not reveal big differences in the offenses between the schools, but the differences (particularly with respect to Pulaski Academy) come out as the data analysis goes forward.
|Figure 1 - Run Play Probability Distribution Functions|
|Figure 2 - Pass Play Probability Distribution Functions|
|Figure 3 - Run Play Cumulative Distribution Functions|
|Figure 4 - Pass Play Cumulative Distribution Functions|
|Figure 5 - Run Play Complementary Cumulative Distribution Functions|
|Figure 6 - Pass Play Complementary Cumulative Distribution Functions|
While the decision tool provided by the Excel spreadsheet does not help a coach on the sidelines on a Friday night, the data can be extracted into a useable form. The tables below show examples that would easily fit in a corner of a play sheet allowing a coach to assess the degree of "gambling" with a given play call. However, the full degree of gambling is not known unless he includes the points the other team is likely to score if a conversion fails. We discuss this analysis technique (and a couple of others) in the book.
As a note on the above tables, the conversion probability percentages for Pulaski Academy demonstrate just how potent Kevin Kelley's offense is. He knows that he can depend on ~35-40% conversion percentage on 4th down out to 10 yards to gain. This is an absolutely brutal offense to attempt to defend. To learn more about decision making tools for high school coaches, pick up an eBook copy of Saturday Morning Wake-Up Call at your favorite bookseller for just $0.99.